The Six Important “Exit” Polls from Last Night
The last time one political party won the presidency three terms in a row was 27 years ago when George H.W. Bush won after Ronald Reagan’s two presidential terms from 1981 to 1989. Before that, 80 years ago Franklin D. Roosevelt served as President from 1933 to 1945 and passed the baton to another Democrat, President Harry S. Truman who served from 1945 to 1953. So it was always an uphill battle for Obama to continue his legacy through a Secretary Clinton presidential win.
Six Exit Polls from Last Night
Six exit polls from the New York Times help to explain yesterday’s election results. The polls collectively show “change” fatigue across the county. President Obama promised “change” and over the past 8 years successfully delivered upon that change. However, the overwhelming results of last night’s election shows that more than half of the country does not want to continue the country’s current track despite Obama’s favorable approval ratings.
- Secretary Hillary Clinton was on the precipice of becoming the first female President of the United States. Despite the historic precedent of this achievement, she only won 54% of the female vote. She actually won less of the female vote than Barack Obama in 2012 who carried 55% of that vote. Despite the controversies surrounding Donald Trump with women, from alleged sexual improprieties to the leaked tape of his lewd comments, she was not able to marshal the female vote greater than 4 years prior.
- If you felt the country was on the wrong track, you overwhelming voted for Trump. Tapping into the foreign trade deals that resulted in job losses throughout the Midwest flipped states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
- If you felt the nation’s economy was either “Poor” or “Fair” you overwhelming voted for Trump as well. Unemployment ratings were reported being the lowest in over 5 years at 4.9% last month. However, while more Americans are working, their wages have declined. So despite the economy performing better over the past 8 years, the positive results were not felt by those Americans that voted for Trump.
- The largest cohort in the county are White Americans without a four year college degree. A 2015 census report showed that roughly 113 million White Americans fall into this bucket. This cohort was most susceptible to the impacts of trade deals that moved jobs overseas and premium increases from the Affordable Care Act. This population overwhelming voted for Trump last night. Additionally, despite some controversial statements from Donald Trump regarding several minority groups including Muslims, Hispanics, and African Americans, roughly a fifth of non-white college graduates and non-whites without a college degree voted for Donald Trump as well. For comparisons, Obama won 51% of the population that did not have a college degree across all ethnicities.
- George W. H. Bush, George W. Bush, and Jed Bush all publically stated the would not vote for Trump. Speaker Paul Ryan voted for Trump but publically told his fellow Congressman to run for re-election without endorsing Donald Trump. Many other famous Republicans aligned with the “Never Trump” movement looking desperately for another candidate. Nonetheless, Donald Trump still managed to capture 90% of the Republican vote; much higher than what the polls were showing. Donald Trump actually won his party’s votes 1% higher than Hillary Clinton who only won 89% of the Democrat vote. This was despite President Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders actively campaigning for her. Lastly, 48% of Independents voted for Trump; the exact opposite results of the 2012 and 2008 elections. While 15% of conservatives voted for Secretary Clinton, 10% of Liberals voted for Donald Trump.
- In 2012 Mitt Romney won 6% of the African American vote, 26% of the Asian vote, and 27% of the Hispanic/Latino vote. Donald Trump preformed better in 2016 across all categories. He won 2% more of the Black vote, 2% more of the Hispanic/Latino vote, and 3% more of the Asian vote despite his immigration policies and intentions to build a wall along the southern border.
4 Years Ago: Click Here to read what The Briefing Room wrote about the 2012 Election exactly 4 years ago.
Source: New York Times